This could be a huge win for homeowners (and those of us in the business of selling homes), particularly those with long-term ownership in high-appreciation markets--but the ripple effects on inventory, pricing, and overall market behavior could be significant.
Currently, homeowners can exclude up to $250,000 in gains if filing individually, or $500,000 if married, as long as they’ve lived in the home for two of the past five years. In markets like Orange County, where long-term appreciation has been steep, those limits often fall short. When you add in Prop 13 protections and ultra-low mortgage rates, it creates a strong “lock-in” effect that keeps not just retirees but also growing families from making a move.
If passed as written, this bill would eliminate one of the main financial disincentives for longtime homeowners to sell. We manage several properties for clients who no longer reside in the home or are unable to do so. Many of them rent their homes so their heirs can eventually benefit from a stepped-up basis and avoid capital gains. This change could finally motivate that group to list their homes, bringing more inventory to the market.
That said, I think a full exemption is unlikely to survive. A more realistic outcome is an inflation-adjusted exclusion. If the $250,000 and $500,000 limits had been indexed to inflation since 1997, they would be closer to $500,000 and $1,000,000 today.
We’ll continue to monitor this closely and keep you updated on how it may impact listing activity in an already tight housing market.