Marterra Market Monitor

Year To Date Activity

Properties Sold (single and multifamily): 50

Sales Volume: $71,651,393

Cumulative Value of Fund Properties Sold: $6,433,500

Homes/Units Managed: 305

Properties Leased: 335

Gross Collected Rent: $7,692,604

Brokerage Listings

Property Management Rental Listings

We have officially entered campaign season, 95 days until the election. Personal attacks have started coming in, which means we struck a nerve.

A few of my favorites so far are:

1) Working in real estate and advocating for permit reform is a clear red flag that I am corrupt

2) Getting called fat

Social media reel showing a man beneath a Daniel Morgan Costa Mesa City Council sign, with comments displayed.

and 3) Whatever this was.

Social media comment thread discussing political videos, local establishments, and supporting a single mom.

The video "CleverSalamander3816" is referencing is a video where I highlight a local small business owned by a single mom that was forced to shut down 6-8 weeks because the restaurant got hit by a drunk driver. In a normal world (with a decent permit process), she would be shut down for like 2 weeks. That's what it took us to reopen a business in a shopping center we manage in Riverside. Anyway, in the video I invite folks to come support her business.

Link to video

We will be hosting several events over the next few months. If you are interested in attending, hosting a yard sign, helping us knock on doors, or contributing to the momentum, please sign up to get involved on our campaign website below.

Campaign Website

Residential Transactional Market: More than days on market, more than price drops, the biggest leading indicator of how the market is doing, is real estate agent behavior. Some of our industry colleagues are getting pretty unruly.

We had one agent threaten to report a homeowner to a City for an alleged code violation if the seller did not offer a closing credit. Her buyer refused to move forward without a credit and she really needed the money.

But for those of you who prefer data, the trendline on months supply (one of the best metrics for measuring supply and demand) is not looking so hot. Especially for the condo/townhome market.

Orange County - residential all types (3.3 months)

Line chart of Orange County residential inventory supply, rising from about 1.9 months in 2023 to 3.3 in 2026.

Orange County - single family homes only (2.9 months)

Orange County single-family inventory supply chart, with a 2025 peak and December 2025 value of 2.1 months.

Orange County - condos/townhomes (3.8 months)

Orange County inventory months supply chart, rising from about 1.5 months in 2024 to 3.8 months in 2026.

This isn't leading up to a crash, but a more of a normalization. Normal months supply for Orange County is 3-4 months. We have been living through an aberration for the last decade or so. What we are now experiencing is reversion to the mean. With that being said, don't be surprised if the pendulum swings a little past normal.

And if it does, just keep in mind, the federal government's favorite way to stimulate the economy has historically been housing. It's the biggest lever they've got.

Residential Rental Market: If you aren't familiar with the term K shape economy, perhaps, there is no easier way to explain it than the rental market. We have two properties, less than two miles apart in Costa Mesa that were just leased out.

1. A very nice (built a few years ago) workforce housing unit - the rent is down 7.5% from what it was previously leased at

and

2. A very nice home in College Park that we just leased out for $9K. To my knowledge the previous high watermark in the neighborhood was $7K.

Macro Observations: What is going on with the economy? And will rates ever come down?

Reaction GIF captioned “Nobody knows.”

June's inflation report was encouraging. Core inflation came in lower than expected, showing that price pressures continue to ease. On its own, that would normally point to lower mortgage rates over time.

Then oil prices ripped.

When energy prices rise, they have a way of working through the entire economy. It costs more to ship goods, manufacture products, and move people from place to place. Those higher costs can eventually show up in future inflation reports, making it harder for the Fed to declare victory.

That is why the bond market isn't focused only on the latest inflation numbers. It is also watching oil prices very closely. Mortgage rates are driven more by the bond market than by the Federal Reserve itself. If investors think inflation could pick back up because of higher energy prices, Treasury yields tend to rise, and mortgage rates often follow.

For buyers and homeowners, the lesson is simple. One good inflation report does not guarantee lower mortgage rates. Inflation is moving in the right direction, but energy prices remain the biggest wildcard. As I've been saying since February, the most important factor influencing the cost of buying a home is the global oil market.

Mortgage Market: The Fed held interest rates steady again, marking its fifth consecutive meeting without a change. While many buyers are still waiting for mortgage rates to come down, most forecasts now expect 30-year fixed rates to stay in the mid-6% range through the rest of the year. In Orange County, rates are hovering around 6.55%—better than the nearly 7% we saw a year ago, but still nowhere near the pandemic lows.

The biggest takeaway is that buyers may need to reset their expectations. Waiting for rates to drop into the 5% range could mean sitting on the sidelines for quite a while. In the meantime, today's market offers something we haven't seen in years: leverage. With fewer buyers competing for homes, it's become easier to negotiate on price, ask for seller credits, and avoid bidding wars. For many buyers, those savings can have a bigger impact than waiting for a lower interest rate that may never materialize.

Mike Simmons

[email protected]

Co-Founder / CEO

(o) 949.208.8025

NMLS 892271

www.qorucapital.com

QORU Capital

Project Updates: We have several projects going on, and here is an update on one of them.

Pegasus, Newport Beach: We are in the thick of Mechanical, Electrical and Plumbing (MEPs). MEPs tend to feel like they move slow because you don't see a lot of physical progress. But once they are complete, drywall, floor and finishes go in. Things feel like they start to move pretty quick once MEPs are done.

Unfinished interior with exposed framing, concrete floors, and plumbing pipes set into an open trench.

Bucknell, Costa Mesa: Foundations are poured. Framing is up next.

Backyard patio under construction with a fresh concrete slab and exposed rear wall framing.

MEPs are going in. As I mentioned above, MEPs feels like little progress is being made, but once the MEPs are complete, finished work goes fast.

Unfinished home interior with exposed timber framing, open wall studs, and a concrete floor.

Thanks again for reading, and I would like to thank our agents and property managers who provide valuable insights from their day-to-day in the field. Without them, this email wouldn't be very useful or interesting.

If there is anything you need: vendors, lenders, or others, please let me know. We have an extensive network of the best and brightest in the industry.

I geek off this stuff; if you want to grab a coffee or chat about anything related to real estate, the market, or investing, please do not hesitate to reach out.

If you don't want to receive these updates in the future, please smash the unsubscribe button below. No hard feelings; I do it ruthlessly. Lastly, if you found the above informative, please share it with a friend or drop me a line.

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