Orange County Real Estate Market Update 2026: Sales, Rentals, Inventory & Interest Rate Trends

Year To Date Activity

Properties Sold (single and multifamily): 29

Sales Volume: $44,219,185

Cumulative Value of Fund Properties Sold: $6,433,500

Homes/Units Managed: 303

Properties Leased: 29

Gross Collected Rent: $5,783,510

Brokerage Listings

Property Management Rental Listings

If you haven't read the Art Of The Deal, you probably should. (Or at least the cliff notes version.) Not because I necessarily think it's a great book on negotiations. My personal approach would probably be as close to the opposite of what is described in the book. But I think it does give some really good insight into how our President approaches negotiations. The core negotiation strategy is to demand bigly, maximize your options to protect against the downside, and use relentless leverage and high-profile promotion to ensure you always operate from a position of total strength.

We have seen some examples where the President has had some success using this strategy. The problem that we have with the conflict in Iran is that the Iranians have also read the book (or honestly might have actually written the book) and the strategy is less effective when your counter party takes the same tact.

Side note: Persians are some of the best negotiators on the planet. I once walked in on my good Persian friend (and partner in a project) negotiating the the cost of his dry cleaning. Absolutely relentless.

All of that is to say: as of 1 hour ago, (it is currently 5/29 at 9am) the President has announced a deal has been reached and the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened.

Whether or not this sticks this time is yet to be seen. This month I am going to skip the macro section because if it sticks

, and if it doesn't

. Despite playing a geopolitical expert on X (fka Twitter), the reality is I am not, so I have no conviction to whether or not this agreement will last through the weekend.

Update as of 5/29 at 3pm -

President Trump's Situation Room meeting on a possible deal with Iran lasted for 2 hours but did not end with a final decision on any new deal with Iran, per NYT.

CaN wE pLeAsE jUsT gEt SoMe ReSoLuTiOn HeRe (╯⊙_⊙)╯

In some additional Marterra news, we have added two new members to our team:

Alexander "Saint" St. Charles- he's a former marine and MMA fighter (also the nicest person I think I have ever met) and he's here to help support our single and multifamily brokerage operations in Orange County. He joins us from Compass.

Enrique Huerta- who I have known since grad school. Enrique most recently worked in acquisition for a multifamily investment fund. He will be focusing on helping us better serve our LA single and multifamily clients.

We are pretty excited to have these gentlemen join our team.

Lastly, if you have considered contributing to my campaign for Costa Mesa City Council, I would humbly ask that you do so this month. We have a big filing date in June. It is the last filing date until September. Fundraising numbers impact endorsements, institutional contributions and putting up big numbers for our June filing which can have a huge impact on the outcome of our election. If you feel so inclined, you can contribute through my campaign website below.

Campaign Website

Residential Transactional Market:

It's rough out there for sellers, but because most of our sellers have exceptionally low rates or have owned their homes for almost a lifetime, many do not have a sense of urgency.

The result is we have very few transactions closing and inventory stacking up. Orange County inventory has sharply ticked up since the start of the year (mostly dramatically since the conflict in Iran started) and has now surpassed the 3 year average.

A few actionable takeaways from this:

1. Buyers, shoot your shot, if you get one of the buyers who needs to sell, you might just get a deal. Yesterday, Christine called a listing agent for a buyer to let them know an offer was coming and let them know the price was coming in low to gauge their response. The listing agent was excited when she heard the price and let Christine know, "I think we can put a deal together".

2. Sellers, if you are sensitive to days on the market, price your home accordingly.

I do believe (maybe it is because I am an optimist by nature) that we will, at some point, see a resolution with the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices and interest rates will drop accordingly and the transactional market will come alive. Said another way, in the long run, this will resolve itself.

But then again....

Residential Rental Market: High end single family homes are having a moment, and I think it is the result of some of the challenges we are seeing the in transactional market. We just leased a home (a very nice home) in Eastside Costa Mesa asking $9.5K in ONE day.

This isn't an isolated instance. We have seen several properties that are exceptionally nice, without real comps to support the elevated pricing, get leased out pretty quickly at numbers that don't seemingly make sense.

Have you heard the term K shape economy? Or K shape recovery? If you haven't, it is a reference to the fact that the economy is bifurcated between some who are doing well and others who are struggling. The leasing market is probably the best real life example of this.

As I shared last month, the workforce housing apartment market is having what ever the opposite of a moment is, with some of our units seeing a ~10% decrease year over year.

Commercial Market: This is specifically for all the doctors out there. This isn't really a market update, it's a heads up on the wildest loan product I have seen. We are helping a client purchase a medical office condo in Newport, and they are getting a loan with a sub 5% interest rate. This loan is only for medical professionals purchasing medical office that their practice will occupy.

If you are leasing your office space, this might be your sign to pull the trigger. Feel free to reach out with questions.

Macro Observations: If the agreement to open the Strait does not hold, I would like to propose the following solution.

That Justin Herbert is a nice kid.

Mortgage Market: At the end of February, mortgage rates were trending lower and nearing their best levels in months. Since then, markets have become more volatile, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices, inflation concerns, and broader economic uncertainty.

Today, mortgage rates are being pulled in two directions: persistent inflation on one side, and signs of slowing economic growth on the other. Investors are closely watching inflation data, labor trends, consumer spending, and Treasury market movement for direction.

Looking ahead, three key factors will drive rates:

Inflation & Oil Prices – Inflation remains a primary driver, with energy prices playing a major role. Any easing in geopolitical tensions or stabilization in oil could help improve rates.

Labor Market & Economic Growth – Slower hiring and moderating consumer spending may signal a cooling economy, which has historically led to lower bond yields and improved rates.

Federal Reserve & Market Expectations – While mortgage rates are driven more by the bond market than the Fed directly, shifts in policy expectations and economic outlook continue to move markets.

The same uncertainty creating volatility is also creating opportunity, especially in Orange County and Costa Mesa. Buyer leverage has improved, with seller concessions, rate buydowns, and flexible financing structures becoming more common.

We’re seeing buyers succeed by:

Negotiating seller credits to offset costs or reduce payments

Using temporary or permanent rate buydowns

Exploring adjustable-rate mortgages for shorter hold periods

Structuring offers in exchange for financing concessions

Positioning for future refinance opportunities

Co-Mike Simmons

Founder / CEO of Qoru Capital

NMLS 892271

(o) 949.208.8025

[email protected]

Project Updates: We have several projects going on, here is an update on one of them.

Pegasus, Newport Beach: We like to add a lot of windows to projects. A lot of the time when we talk about design, we are talking about functional layout and aesthetics. The two things that completely transform a space are high ceilings and lots of natural light. The best way to increase natural light: windows, lots of windows. The challenge is when you add a ton of windows, you can impact the structural integrity of wall, so a common (and cost effective way) to reinforce the wall is through what is know as a shear wall. A shear wall is a rigid, vertical wall built into a house or building to reinforce the structural soundness of the wall.

When using a shear wall, architects will often place them on the outside of the existing framing. In order to do this, they need to demo all the existing stucco. Stucco is extremely expensive right now. So if you do this, switching to siding (which we are doing at our Bucknell project is a more affordable option). The other option is to place the shear wall inside the framing (which makes your rooms slightly smaller) but allows you to maintain your existing stucco (which is obviously the cheapest option.